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In many probabilistic analysis problems, the homogeneous/nonhomogeneous non-Gaussian field is represented as a mapped Gaussian field based on the Nataf translation system. We propose a new sample-based iterative procedure to estimate the underlying Gaussian correlation for homogeneous/nonhomogeneous non-Gaussian vector or field. The numerical procedure takes advantage that the range of feasible correlation coefficients for non-Gaussian random variables is bounded if the translation system is adopted. The estimated underlying Gaussian correlation is then employed for unconditional as well as conditional simulation of the non-Gaussian vector or field according to the theory of the translation process. We then present the steps for augmenting the simulated non-Gaussian field through the Karhunen-Loeve expansion for a refined discretized grid of the field. In addition, the steps to extend the procedure described in the previous section to the multi-dimensional field are highlighted. The application of the proposed algorithms is presented through numerical examples. LESS      Full article

No country will escape the ravages of climate change, but some, like small island developing states (SIDS), will be less able to withstand them. Their fundamental characteristics in essential domains pose existential threats for them. The paper borrows from Lukka and Vinnari’s work on domain and method theories as a lens to conceptually explore the question, “Is it possible for SIDS to become disaster resilient?” It turns out that SIDS might be too small, too isolated, too economically and institutionally weak, and too exposed to become disaster resilient. Their developmental state, economic, institutional, and community attributes are causes of significant vulnerabilities and undermine disaster resilience efforts. The challenges from climate change alone highlight the herculean task ahead for these small and tiny developing islands without transformative actions. The advantage for SIDS is their solid social system. Their populations are resourceful, and they can pivot if they need to. However, the lingering question remains whether that will be enough to mitigate the weaknesses in other critical resilience domains? LESS      Full article

Catastrophe (CAT) risk modeling of perils such as typhoon and earthquake has become a prevailing practice in the insurance and reinsurance industry. The event generation model is the key component of the CAT modeling. In this paper, a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) full track model is introduced to model typhoons events in the western North Pacific basin. At the same time, a comprehensive test of the model is presented from the perspective of CAT risk modeling for insurance and reinsurance applications. The full track model includes the genesis, track, intensity, and landing models. Driven by the global environmental circulations, the model employs the advection and beta drift theory in atmospheric dynamics to model the track of typhoons. The proposed model is novel in the way of modeling the genesis of TCs with three-dimension kernel distributions in space and time. This enables the simulation of seasonal characteristics of TCs. By generating 10,000-year TC events, we comprehensively test the model from the standpoint of CAT insurance and reinsurance applications. The typhoon hazard model and the generated events can serve as the inputs for assessing the typhoon risk and insured loss caused by winds, rains, floods, and storm surges. LESS      Full article

Critical infrastructure such as the transportation, power generation, water supply, telecommunications, security and health services/systems, etc. are essential for providing a reliable flow of goods and services, crucial to the functioning of the economy and society. These infrastructures are closely linked and dependent on one another, and these interdependencies need to be modelled in order to analyse the disruptions and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure networks as a whole. With increased, investment and complexity in the coupling of gas and electricity network, limitations and vulnerabilities of the coupled networks are becoming increasingly relevant to the operational planning of the critical infrastructures. Current modelling of a coupled gas and electricity network will be used in conjunction with nation input-output interdependency model to model physical critical infrastructures and critical infrastructure interdependencies, respectively. This research work will tackle two possible scenarios that might happen in the gas network while evaluating the cascading impact both in the physical model perspective and input-output interdependency model perspective. The results will provide insights on how disruption in the gas network affects the electricity grid and its corresponding economic impact on all economic sectors in a nation. LESS      Full article